Biometeorological model for estimating the temporal and spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti generations in Santa Catarina, Brazil
Keywords:
Temperature, dengue mosquito, ecology, modelingAbstract
The objective of this paper was to develop a biometeorological model to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of the duration and number of generations of the mosquito Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) for Santa Catarina, based on temperature data collected in stations meteorological. The study was based on the thermal constants of the species and the historical series of hourly temperatures from Epagri's automatic meteorological stations in Santa Catarina, between 2001 and 2023 for Florianópolis and from 37 automatic meteorological stations for the year 2022-2023. The duration and number of generations were estimated using a quadratic equation relating the development of A. aegypti to hourly average temperatures. The calculations made it possible to determine the duration in days of the cycle from oviposition to adulthood, its monthly distribution, the annual number and the historical monthly average of generations. The temperature conditions in Santa Catarina allow A. aegypti to develop, on average, 19 generations per year, with 1 to 2.5 generations per month. The estimated duration of the life cycle varied from 10 to 30 days depending on the months of the year. The model makes it possible to calculate and provide a prediction of the temporal and spatial dynamics of the number of mosquito generations, based on hourly air temperatures from meteorological station networks. possible to determine the duration in days of the oviposition phases until the adult stage, their monthly distribution, annual number, historical average of generations and the monthly historical average of generations. The methodology makes it possible to make information on the temporal and spatial dynamics of the number of mosquito generations available online on the Agroconnect digital platform based on the Epagri/CIRAM meteorological station network. This information can provide data to predict the risk of human exposure to Aedes Aegypti, its geographic and temporal distribution now and for the future.
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